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LATEST NEWS
We want end of Terrorism: everywhere in India – including Lalgarh
Prabir Ghosh
June 23rd, 2009
Why is there so much bloodshed? Why such terrorism everywhere?
Any honest and impartial person is against terrorism. We too, the rationalists and humanists are against any kind of murder, torture and terrorism. We sincerely wish that all this mindless killings should come to an end. Why is there so much of terror in this country?
Let us first take the case of this state – West Bengal.
During the last 32 years of Left-front rule, 45000 people were killed.
###
In the terrorist nation India, all the terrorist political parties thrive.
The surprising fact is that most of the political parties of India are up against terrorism and are ever ready to implement ‘stringent anti-terrorism measures’ to combat terrorism. At the same time, these very political parties themselves are nothing but terrorist groups.
In 1996, Amnesty International had presented a report. On investigating upon 150 countries, they identified 82 nations where the state machinery resorted to ‘terrorism’ as a routine practice. The governments of all these countries use the following methods as part of their administration—kidnapping, killing in cold blood in the name of ‘encounter’ with police or military, illegally detaining indefinitely without filing case, not allowing to take legal help, entering the house at night without search-warrant, arresting without the presence of witness and then claiming to have found weapons or objectionable papers with the arrested person, -- these are examples of dirty criminal acts perpetrated by the states.
India is one among these 82 nations identified by Amnesty Intl.
‘State terrorism’ is severe in the North-eastern states – Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Orissa, in Kashmir in Northern India, in Chhattisgarh in central India and in Andhra Pradesh in South. The atrocities carried out by the state machinery are unimaginable. The gravity of it is beyond the comprehension of people outside these regions. It is more so because the media are never truly impartial. They have to toe the line of the ruling party or the rich and powerful opposition. The media in West Bengal do the same by suppressing or distorting news, or even by total blackout in some cases. Sometimes they are shadows of CPM party, and as soon as the tables turn, they hang around the opposition leader, travel with her, fly with her, lifting her sky-high only to pull her down and ridicule her later as time comes. It is they who create Maoist leaders like ‘Kishenji’ or ‘Bikash’ and make exclusive stories.
It is these media who truncate the name “Public Committee against Police Atrocities” (PCAPA) to make it only “Public Committee”. The words ‘police atrocities’ probably sound too harsh to them!
‘Public Committee against Police Atrocities’
It was an afternoon on November 2008; Chief Minister Buddahdeb Bhattacharya and Central minister Rambilas Paswan were returning through Shalboni in their convoy after inaugurating a proposed Steel plant by the Jindal group. The Maoists triggered an explosion aiming at the convoy. After this incident which missed the CM’s vehicle and slightly injured a few others, the police started massive operation and arbitrary arrests.
Under the leadership of Police Superintendent of West Midnapur district, they entered tribal houses some 70 kilometers away from the spot and arrested some schoolboys of 7th and 8th class, an old retired schoolteacher and some others as ‘suspected Maoists’. During this action they reportedly roughed up tribal women – the male police force manhandled and molested them, abused with vulgar threats.
The suppressed grievance of the long deprived local people exploded after this criminal offence. The poor tribal populace of the region united and formed the ‘Public Committee against Police Atrocities’. Their main demand was that – the Police Super and the misbehaving police personnel have to come to the Tribal village and publicly apologize for their mistake and misdemeanor.
Now, the West Bengal government always appears as the savior of the police whenever they are in trouble. We have seen it before – in Singur, Nandigram, Khejuri, Memari in Burdwan and in case of the hapless Rizwanur. The Police actively participated in genocide, loot, rape and setting fire. The police force usually comes as the pilot convoy before the armed hooligan party-cadres and together they jointly carry out the massacre. In return, the Buddhadeb government takes good care of the police force, turning a blind eye to all their crimes. So, when the PCAPA made their demand, the Chief Secretary of Buddha government called a press conference and announced – that there could be no question of apologizing.
The self-respecting poor tribal people could not digest this kind of arrogance. They started a movement – PCAPA—and are continuing it for the following eight months. The leader of the committee, Sri Chhatradhar Mahato pointed out that some of the media are diverting attention from the police by shortening the name to just ‘People’s Committee’, ignoring the point of Police atrocities.
We saw on television that Chhatradhar and the common people of Lalgarh considered the Maoists as their friends, who came as their savior.
In eight months Lalgarh saw progress that did not happen in the past 32 years.
Some able and sympathetic people came forward to help the PCAPA. They showed them the way to become self-reliant, to unite and work together to make self-ruled villages. The villagers joined hands to work together and made unimaginable progress in a few months. What the left-front government failed to do in 32 years, they did in 8 months –claims Chhatradhar. A 60 feet deep reservoir to store water for irrigation, miles of canals cleaned and channeled to the fields, tube-wells in villages for drinking water, 50 kilometers of solid gravel road that saved them a long detour to go to the nearest Midnapore town; these are some of their achievements. A health centre with a doctor is also set up by them. All this has been done by the villagers themselves without any help from the state.
Some able and sympathetic people who came forward to help and guide these villagers have been branded as ‘Maoists’ by the CPI (M). Once you call them ‘Maoists’, they can be arrested, detained without trial or better still, killed in the name of encounter. So simple!
It is only natural that the cruel and fascist CPI (M) government will call these people ‘Maoists’ or ‘Terrorists’.
But the tribal Adivasis (literal meaning = original inhabitants) call them friends. It is the ‘Police people’ that are the ‘real enemies’; no, not even hunger and poverty. They have learnt to live with them. It is further torture and humiliation that infuriate them.
###
In India infested with terrorists, the CPI (M) is the largest terrorist group
In the past 32 years, there have been 45000 political killings. Of that 40000 have been perpetrated by the ruling party CPI (M). In cruelty, comparable only to the Nazis, this outfit has carried out genocide in Marichjhapi, Naxalbari, Sainbari, Kashipur, Baranagar, Beliaghata, Dhantala, Bantala, Ghoksadanga, Keshpur, Garbeta, Arambag, Nandigram etc during their long tenure. The cruelty of these massacres was unimaginable.
Even after all this, why the Central government is not taking steps to ban this party is a mystery. Is it because in future they may again have to tie the knot with this party at the centre? The party that believes in genocide as a political weapon should be banned in the state at least!
The reader must be wondering why all these facts were not made public so long. It is mainly because of the left inclined media owners and intellectuals who were in some way indebted to the leftist government. They, out of their own sense of gratitude kept mum all these years. All the wrong ideas got publicity. We were told that even if you take up arms against police, military or ruling party workers in self defense, it is tantamount to going against the Nation/State. It is ‘Terrorism’. These fighters are ‘terrorists’ – even if they are poor, hungry and naked. Even if they live without electricity, water supply or health care and get humiliated and tortured by police at regular intervals.
###
We are clearly against terrorism and cold blooded man-slaughter
Each and every progressive, rational and humane person must be against mindless cruelty. At the same time one has to agree that continuous deprivation, ill-treatment, neglect and above all, state-terrorism can steamroll the people to make them revolt at a point of time– to make them rise up to counter-terrorism. Such possibility cannot be ruled out.
Finally genocide and counter-killings go on to cripple the society. We cannot think of a beautiful society to live in, to progress towards a better future. So we express our strong hatred and disapproval of all the terrorist political parties and terrorism of the state.
###
An example of an ideal ‘terrorist’ state
18 June, 2009: To suppress the terrorist upheaval the state police and the central armed forces have jointly entered the jungle-covered Lalgarh, the poorest region of West Bengal.
Quoting from the first page of daily paper Bartaman – a tribal woman Usharani from Kuldiha says – “On Friday afternoon, I sat with two morsels of rice to feed my child. Police came, kicked and broke open the door. They entered in a group, kicked and overturned the plate of rice. They ransacked and broke everything in the house. We are Maoists, they said. They threw everything we had – plates, vessels, sacks of rice and daal – everything into the well. Before leaving they threatened to sexually abuse me”.
The experience is more or less the same in households in the villages of Kuldiha, Goaldanga, Kankshol, Malida, Sarberia, Peyarakuli, Pechapora and 40 others like them. The people all belong to Tribal community or aborigines of the place. Police and central forces manhandled the women, lifting their saris in the name of frisking, beating with lathis, and ridiculed them offering their services at night in the absence of their husbands. In some places, they urinated in the wells or put their excreta rendering them unfit for drinking.
Next day we saw the shocking picture (Times of India) of local boys being made to look for landmines, while the police personnel were behind them with their weapons. This is a definite case of gross violation of human rights.
We hereby draw the attention of National Human Rights Commission, with a request for immediate enquiry and steps against the police involved.
###
What is going on? Is it warfare?
Are Indian soldiers fighting with their own countrymen?
Now if any foreigner questions the very character of our Nation, and calls it a terrorist state, do we have a reply?
[Author is Gen. Secretary of the Science & Rationalists Association of India and President of Humanists’ Association]Picture courtesy: THE TELEGRAPH and THE TIMES OF INDIA
Utter Confusion
This letter has been sent to the Editor, The Telegraph.
All the news items point to one thing-- lack of understanding, resulting in utter confusion.
"We have come here for peace. Innocent villagers are getting trapped between the Maoists and the security forces. We would like both sides to drop their arms and come for talks," said film director Aparna Sen.
We are surprised that the intellectuals who visited Lalgarh are dividing the poor villagers from the so-called 'Maoists'. The active group comprised of some of the villagers only are trying to protect their folks from police atrocities. Their only demand is to remove the police. And Police has justified the demand of the so -called Maoists by cruel and indecent behaviour during the last 4 days.
In Pirakata a section of the state armed police (SAP) — terrified of IED explosions - caught hold of local youths and forced them to poke around for hidden mines and explosives?
Acts like this will trigger more calls for vengeance and lead people to doubt the sincerity of the government's attempts to pacify the tribal villagers.
In Kuldiha, poice forces are torturing women. As per the report, a woman, Bijola Mahato says that the police women lifted her sari, while showering lathis on her the menfolk ( Police) made indecent remarks -- " Since your husband is not at home, let me come tonight..." The husbands have fled, some are in relief camps, the cows are left without food, the wares they make for a living -- plates and bowls made of dried Saal-leaves are bundled and left unsold.
Who gave the Army and Police the right to disrupt the normal life in villages and insult poor, hungry people in this manner? Isn't forcing local youths to look for mines -- the height of human rights abuse? Where is army discipline? Are they at war with their own people?
We request the intellectuals to highlight these Army and Police atrocities, for which these people are fighting for the last eight months.
It is equally sad that Mamata Banerjee, instead of voicing sympathy for the poor & deprived people of our land, has asked for announcing the zone as "Disturbed Area". Does she know that 'Disturbed Area' will justify permanent Police posting and continuing atrocities? Have we all foergotten Manipur and what rights the Armed Forces Special Powers Act are endowed with?Please stop this confusion and face the facts --
The people are hungry and without a livelihood,
The Army and police are not their well-wishers.
Let us all unitedly demand social justice.
SUMITRA PADMANABHAN
G.S., HUMANISTS' ASSOCIATION
P 2, BLOCK B, LAKE TOWN
KOLKATA - 700089
June 22nd, 2009
Beneath sari, brutal scars
SUJAN DUTTAKuldiha, June 21: Shame is abandoned with great effort. But the women of this village are willing to draw up their saris, just to show how brutalised they are.
At a relief camp in Pirakata, the crossroad that practically marks the end of the authority of the West Bengal government on the route to Lalgarh, they pulled up saris to reveal weals and scars to show how mercilessly they were beaten by the police.
The police did not have orders to open fire. They were free to beat and brutalise.
Kuldiha is 4km up ahead from Pirakata. It is desolate, save for the cows tethered to bamboo masts. The village has about 40 households. The refugees from the village say there was only one person in the village with a regular job — a government employee in the land reforms department. Most were farmers and cowherds. But this afternoon there is no one in any of the houses. The village is desolate. The men fled to the forests when the security forces began assembling.
The battered women of Kuldiha roamed the fields and forests around here for two nights. This morning and afternoon, they began trickling into the camp at the Pirakata Primary High School set up by the local Trinamul Congress.
Every armed conflict must have its share of refugees. The relief camp in Pirakata is the first to shelter the first in Lalgarh’s latest round of violence.
The village is spread on either side of a narrow metalled road. Inside, a motorcycle upturned into a pond is evidence of the violence that it has been through.
There isn’t a soul in sight. Cows tethered to bamboo masts moo because they are hungry. Their owners have left home. They are in the relief camp this afternoon.
“The policewomen lifted my sari,” sobs Bijola Mahato, “and kicked me while lathis rained down and a man shouted ‘since your husband is not at home, let me come tonight and be your husband’”.
The Bengal government’s order to the security forces it has amassed over here to go easy on the trigger has meant they can go hard with the lathi...Courtesy: THE TELEGRAPH
Lalgarh's poverty behind red rage
19 Jun 2009, Subhbrata Guha, TNN
At first sight, Lalgarh doesn't look intimidating — its nonchalant villagers and the languid pace of life is like any other village. Little gets in and even less gets out. But beneath the pastoral calm of rural Bengal, Lalgarh has been simmering as the red lava of Maoist rage flowing out of this West Midnapore town, 180 km from Kolkata, now proves.
The state didn't wither away in Lalgarh, it just wasn't ever there. For decades, tribals in Lalgarh, comprising several villages under Binpur-II block in West Midnapore district, sat on the powder keg as Naxals amassed guns and bombs, indoctrinated illiterate village boys and fed on the disillusionment with the laid-back and corrupt CPM administration.
In the last 30 years, the Left Front has not built roads to connect far-flung villages, with virtually one bus plying between district headquarters of Jhargram and Belpaharai daily.
Also, adjoining villages are Amlasole and Amjhora from where first hunger deaths were reported in the state, pointing to the ruling Left Front government's oppression and dispossession. The NREGA has failed to provide succour to Ukil Murmu, Gayanswar Murmu, Gour Murmu and Dhiren Manki living on Ayodhya hills and in villages dotting the forests around Belpahari. Hardly any of them have got work for the mandatory 100 days.
"I got my job card three years ago. For all these years my application for work was pending with the gram panchayat. Last month we got work for laying village roads. That was for 15 days but I haven't received any money yet," says Balaram Hansda of Barnajara village. "As far as I know the money has gone back. No one knows when work will start again. Worse whether it will start at all."
After working for four days, Ukil Murmu, his wife Binti and father Gayeshwar from were paid Rs 1,070. That is all that they have to live off for the remaining 361 days of the year till they get some more work. "There is no more work now. We don't have any land of our now. In this part farming is possible only after rains. We have to beg for jobs from the landowners. There are hundreds of tillers like us who are looking for work. The 100 days work could have helped us live better," says Ukil.
(With inputs from Arnab Ganguly in Kolkata)
Courtesy: THE TIMES OF INDIA
Tribals on warpath in Lalgarh; say can work better than govt
18 Jun 2009, PTI
LALGARH (WB): Hinting at a state within a state, tribal leader Chhatradhar Mahato said his organisation could build infrastructure in just eight months in restive Lalgarh, which the state government could not do in 32 years.
"If the state government had done 10 per cent of the work we did, the situation would have been different," Mahato, Convenor of the People's Committee Against Police Atrocities (PCAPA) said.
"We have laid at least 50 km of gravel path, dug tanks and tube wells and revived irrigation canals with the help of villagers," he said.
Mahato claimed the PCAPA built a 60-feet-deep reservoir at Barapelia, where its headquarters is situated, and planned to revive a canal for irrigation.
A health centre with a doctor was also functioning at Kantapahari, he said.
Though the government built the road to Midnapore town, all link roads were constructed by the PCAPA, he said, claiming that this saved villagers from walking for miles through forests.
Maoists are on the rampage in Lalgarh, in Midnapore district of West Bengal bordering Orissa, targetting CPM cadres and party offices protesting against police "atrocities".
Courtesy: THE TIMES OF INDIA
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------RESULTS of 'INR 25,00,000 challenge to all astrologers to forecast result of Parliament Election 2009'
May 18th 2009
Science and Rationalists’ Association of India (Bharayatiya Bigyan o Yuktibadi Samiti) challenged all astrologers to forecast following results / information regarding Parliament Election 2009:--
- How many seats will be acquired by Congress, BJP, TMC, CPI(M), BSP, RJD, Samajbadi Party, DMK, AIDMK?
- How much differences in votes will remain to win/lose for Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi, Lalkrishna Advani, Mamata Bandopadhyay, Laluprasad Yadav, Rambilas Paswan from their respective nearest opponents?
Till May 15 late night we received 15 responses to the challenge (Click here to read more). As we expected, none of them had shown the correct position. The actual results started coming out and were broadcast on TV from the morning of the 16th. The replies received from 8am onwards on May 16 were not considered. The results are given below.
Results of the 2009 Parliament Election
Seats acquired by:Congress 206
BJP 116
TMC 19
CPI(M) 16
BSP 21
RJD 4
Samajbadi Party 23
DMK 18
AIDMK 9
Manmohan Singh—has not contested, already elected in Rajya Sabha
Sonia Gandhi—won
Lalkrishna Advani—won
Mamata Bandopadhyay—won
Laluprasad Yadav—contested in 2; won in one, lost in the other
Rambilas Paswan—lost
Regarding the margin, there are such vast differences—most figures are in lakhs (hundred thousands)—that we do not think the details are necessary.
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------25 lakh prize for poll prediction
By Pooja Chakrabarty May 15th 2009
Kolkata, 15 May: Election results are on everyone’s mind, and a city-based NGO has challenged astrologers to predict the winners before poll results are declared on Saturday. The prize is a hefty Rs. 25 lakhs.
The Science and Rationalists Association of India (SRAI) has put two questions to astrologers. First, to predict the exact number of seats that Congress, BJP, TMC, CPI(M), BSP, RJD, SP, DMK and AIADMK will win. Second, to determine the margin of victory or defeat for leaders like Sonia Gandhi, L.K. Advani, Mamata Banerjee, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan.
“We can all make guesses if we do a little research and study previous trends. Yet, year after year, post-election results, we find astrologers claiming that things have turned out just as they had predicted. So this time, we are giving them time to make their forecasts. After all, astrologers always claim to know more,” says Sumitra Padmanabhan, President of SRAI.
She recalls the time when astrologer Amrit Lal had foretold that Rajiv Gandhi would come to power. Gandhi was killed only a few months later.
“This Rs. 25-lakh challenge is nothing new. We have a long-standing challenge to anything that supposedly cannot be explained scientifically,” Padmanabhan adds.
The challenge dates back to nearly two decades when the prize money was pegged at Rs. 1.5 lakhs. “Later, Khushwant Singh joined and added Rs. 50,000 to it,” says Padmanabhan.
But the current bait of Rs. 25 lakh has ensured that several astrologers have risen to the occasion. Most of them hail from Delhi and Mumbai, but Kolkata has representation from local astrologers Sree Gautam and Vrigu.
With a fractured mandate almost certain, it is hard to predict Saturday's outcome. However, in a country with a population well over a billion, the chances of somebody getting it right are high. But for the rationalists at SRAI looking for another opportunity to dispel superstition and non-scientific thought, this is a risk they are willing to take.
Courtesy: www.ilovekolkata.in
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------INR 25,00,000 challenge to all astrologers to forecast result of Parliament Election 2009
May 11th 2009
Science and Rationalists’ Association of India (Bharayatiya Bigyan o Yuktibadi Samiti) challenges all astrologers to forecast following results / information regarding Parliament Election 2009:--
- How many seats will be acquired by Congress, BJP, TMC, CPI(M), BSP, RJD, Samajbadi Party, DMK, AIDMK?
- How much differences in votes will remain to win/lose for Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi, Lalkrishna Advani, Mamata Bandopadhyay, Laluprasad Yadav, Rambilas Paswan from their respective nearest opponents?
If any astrologer can forecast the correct result, Science and Rationalists’ Association of India will give him INR 25,00,000.00 (Twenty five lakhs Indian Rupees) (approx US$50,000.00) and shut down the Association.
Astrologers should forecast on 14th or 15th May 2009. They should send their forecast to Science and Rationalists’ Association of India by email (Email id of General Secretary: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com , Email id of President: sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com ) and any of the following Press:
- Anandabazar Patrika
- Bartaman
- Star Ananda
- Kolkata TV
- The Statesman
- The Times of India
- NDTV
- Aajtak
- BBC
- PTI
- UNI
- AFP
- AP
Astrologers have the habit of announcing after every election that, they had predicted the correct result. Science and Rationalists’ Association of India challenges in order to stop such false propaganda.
Prabir Ghosh,
General Secretary,
Science and Rationalists’ Association of IndiaSumitra Padmanabhan,
President,
Science and Rationalists’ Association of India
These are some of the comments received in response to our challenge. We are grateful to all these scientists and thinkers for giving such serious thoughts and for using various statistical methods to find out the odds!
We have already received two applications and sent them to PTI news agency. Ha ha
The game is on ! Let's see till tomorrow!
We are as excited as the astrologers !!!:
- Written by James Randi, May 12, 2009
Thank you! Your society has issued an effective and provocative challenge, one which should be publicized widely.
I predict that the astrologers will ignore it, as they always do.
James Randi
James Randi Educational Foundation
USA
- Written by Joaquin Cabrejas, May 12, 2009
I like the challenge!
Joaquin Cabrejas
Member Services Assistant
American Humanist Association
- Written by N. Innaiah, May 12, 2009
Dear friend
I am writing this from USA ( returning to India by 25 may). This is timely and excellent challenge. The cunning astrologers will not face this challenge but after results claim that they predicted.Yet there are gullible public to believe and support them. Another suggestion is that who ever publish the prediction , when it goes wrong , they should be punished under existing cheating laws.
N. Innaiah
Chairman,
Center for Inquiry India
May 12th 2009
- Written by Biplab Das, May 12, 2009
THIS IS A GOOD IDEA TO PROVE THAT ALL ASTROLOGERS FORECAST IS FAKE.
- Written by Star Gazer, May 13, 2009
My astrological charts tell me no one is going to win this challenge. :)
But do astrologers tend to claim to make such accurate predictions? I'd think they stop at predicting who wins, or even the ranking, but not the number of seats and votes.
Besides, it makes no sense to predict the future if it's set in stone. If you can't change the future there is no reason to want to know it, since you can't act on it. (I think that paradox was pointed out to me in Science of Discworld II)
- Written by Star Gazer, May 14, 2009
Well, some people do skip to the end of books. Or read them several times over despite knowing the ending after the first time.
Maybe I could have phrased it better as "people want to know the future because they think they can then prepare for it and change it". And we know how that works out in all those Greek tragedies (e.g. Oedipus).
The orbits of planets and the movements of stars are known thousands of years into the future; so astrology, were it true, would imply that the future can't be changed. I don't see what people see in it; if it's true it's useless and if it isn't true it's also useless. It's a lose-lose situation.
- Written by MadScientist, May 13, 2009
This is dangerous because they're playing the large numbers game and one astrologer may just guess it all. There is no control and no test against chance. Deplorable methodology; I hope they lose so that skeptics can learn a lesson.
- Written by Mark P, May 13, 2009
"Answer to --"one astrologer may just guess it all""
You're kidding, right?
The odds are tiny. There are nine parties to guess. You are as likely to be hit by an asteroid as get it by sheer luck.
Would you play a lottery where you had to guess, in order, nine numbers adding up to 545? Even allowing for knowing some of results will be within a certain range, you would be a very long time trying.
- Written by tctheunbeliever, May 14, 2009
Hopefully the results are less predictable than say, the U.S. Senate.
Jason
- Written by BillyJoe, May 14, 2009
You stuffed it.
Astrology is like Quantum Mechanics: once you observe it, it changes.
BJ
- Written by BillyJoe, May 14, 2009
"When you have thousands and thousands of potential 'players', the odds that one will hit increases."
Firstly, how many astrologers are there in India?
Secondly, can anyone actually compute the odds, firstly using a completely random result and secondly using reasonable limits on the number of seats for every party?
Thirdly, would it be worth risking $50,000 to document that 49,999 astrologers were wrong and only 1 was right.
BJ
- Written by Gord_in_Toronto, May 14, 2009
I hope they have actually calculated the odds on the potential of someone guessing correctly because this is India they were talking about and they may get thousands of responses.
- Written by Kuroyume, May 14, 2009
I'm not assuming that everyone in India reads or needs to read the notice. If 1% of India's population is comprised of astrologers (which I doubt, but humor me) and a good sized proportion of them did respond (they do have computers in India and can communicate just like we do, evidenced by all of my tech support calls going there - eh hem, joke), it would be an overwhelming number. India's population is nearly FOUR times that of the USA. One sixth the entire world population. Even at odds of 1 in 100,000,000,000, there is a slight (and I'll repeat, slight) probability that someone could randomly guess all of the options (because the odds for 10,000,000 in the 1:100bil is 1 in 10,000). Those odds are not as big as one would think. Mine That Bird... okay.
- Written by Michael K Gray, May 14, 2009
Astrologer Qualifications?
Some folk seem to imply that "being" an Astrologer requires some sort of formal qualification or membership of a guild or some such thing.
The fact is that ANYONE can hang up a shingle labeling themselves an Astrologer. (Unless, of course, they are a Libra.)
I am an Astrologer, and so is my pet dog!
- Written by Mark P, May 14, 2009
"Okay, the educated odds according to Star Gazer are 1 in 200,000."
Not that's a hopeless underestimate. Even allowing for swings of only + or - 5 votes, across 9 parties we can approximate that as 10^9. So your one chance in a billion then. We know the maximum that the sum must add up to, but not the minimum, since some independents and other parties will win.
But vote swings in India tend to be large -- upwards of + or - 50 seats for the major parties. I would guess that one in 100 billion might cover it.
Now if every Indian entered, one or two might win. Just might. And that person almost certainly would not be an actual astronomer.
That would be a terrific score for the skeptics of this world. It would make it abundantly clear that if enough guesses are made then some will come right. Which is what we say applies to all fortune tellers. The only downside is , of course, having to pay out to some lucky punter.
15 responses received to our challenge to 'Astrologers' --May 17, 2009
(Many have not given their addresses. Nos 14 and 15 seem to be those well-advertised astrologers of Kolkata, Bengal -- Sree Gautam amd Vrigu.)
1)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2009 13:30:42 +0530
Subject: election results
From: sandeep.madana143@gmail.com
To: sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
congress=179
bjp=198
cpi=24
cpm=40
bsp=13
rjd=19
dmk=13
samaazwadi=32
others=25
2)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2009 16:32:35 +0530
Subject: venkateswaraswamyhumanist
From: venki.linga@gmail.com
To: sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
hello sirCongress party > 80Bjp party > 110Cpm party > 28Cpi party > 26Bsp party > 35Rgd party > 10Annadmk > 25Samgavadi > 15majarty.scoresoniya gandhi 125000advani 2.00000lalu prasad 35000paswan 50000mamatha banrji 40000manmohan singh 25000
3)
Date: Thu, 14 May 2009 21:13:21 +0530
Subject: LS Poll Prediction-2009
From: deva8088@gmail.com
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
CC: sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
The question announced for astrologers for the poll predictions is given below
1. Who will be the next prime minister of India ?
Mr. Pranab Mukharjee
2. Which party, combination of parties will come to power?
Congerss- 152 seats
SP(mulayam singh)- 26
JD(s)- 7
Independents- 17
CPI(m)- 29
CPI- 7
SP- 2
Forward Block- 2
RJD- 9
AIADMK- 19
BJD- 7
Total- 277
Congress Patry leader with Mr. Pranab Mukharjee as the new prime misnister of India with the help of above alliance numbering total 277 will form the next government.
3. How many seats will each party win?
a. Congress- 152
b. BJP- 147
c.CPI(m)- 29
d. CPI- 7
e.SP(Socialist party)- 2
f. RJD- 9
g. JD(s)- 7
h. JD(u)- 3
i. DMK- 13
j.AIADMK- 19
k. Trinamool Congress- 11
l. BSP(MAYAWATHI)- 31
m. BSP(Mulayam Singh)- 26
4. The votes polled by each of the following candidates.
a. Sonia Gandhi- 4,39,830
b. Shashi Tharoor- 4,73,939
c.Varun gandhi- 3,71,626
d. Jayaprakash Hegde- 3,36,829
e.S. Bangarappa- 3,87,226
f.B.Y.Raghavendra- 4,26,727
g.Sheena Rai- 2,23,550
h. George Fernandes- 2,16,220
i. L.K.Advani- 5,23,728
j.Janrdhana Poojary- 4,37,750
k.M.M.Joshi- 4,13,528
Jai Maruthi
with best wishes
N.N.Seshadri
4)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 11:34:04 +0530
Subject: Predict Results of India Parliament Election 2009
From: sameer.khanjit@gmail.com
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com; sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
CC: sameer.khanjit@gmail.com
1. How many seats will be acquired by Congress, BJP, TMC, CPI(M), BSP,
RJD, Samajbadi Party, DMK, AIDMK?
prediction: congress - 155-165 seats, BJP- 145-155 seats, TMC-4seats.
CPI(M) - 40 seats, BSP - 60-80 seats, RJD - 10-15seats, SP - 25-35
seats, DMK - 10-15 seats, AIDMK - 15-25 seats.
2. How much differences in votes will remain to win/lose for Manmohan
Singh, Sonia Gandhi, Lalkrishna Advani, Mamata Bandopadhyay,
Laluprasad Yadav, Rambilas Paswan from their respective nearest
opponents?
prediction: Manmohan Singh not contested, Sonia Gandhi - win by 30,000
votes and above, L.K Advani - win by 50,000 votes and above, Mamta -
win by 10,000 and above, Laluprasad Yadav - lose by 10,000 votes,
Rambilas Paswan - win by 15,000 votes and aboce
3. Who will be the next prime minister of India ?
Mr A. K. Antony
--
Regards
Sameer
5)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 13:57:42 +0530
Subject: challenge accpet forecast LS 2009
From: chanakya.potdar@gmail.com
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
CC: abhisarsharma@aajtak.com; sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com; qw.naqvi@aajtak.com
Dear Mr. Prabir Ghosh,
I am pleased to accept your challenge to forecast the results of
upcoming Lok Sabha Polls 2009, I also challange you for having a
friendly debate on forecasting and its scientificness as I am a
telecomm. engg. and independent analyst and give forecast for various
intelligence and scientific agencies incl. NSC, NASA, ISRO.
I am also running my portal at http://worldforecast.blogspot.com which
is being monitored by International monitors and Security experts of
India, US and UK (Incl. The Arlington Institute, Stratfor, CIA ,
Mossad and Indian agencies). I put forecasts on various topics...
Forecast Categories: Terrorism, Strategic/Military Forecast, Political
Changes, Poll Results, Natural Disasters: Earthquake/Tsunami, Cyclone,
Flood, Landslides, Industrial Disasters: Nuclear, Rail, Air, Marine,
Petrochemical, Commercial, Inflation, Oil Prices, Space Missions,
National / Global Leadership, Surprise Breakthrough Events, Nuclear
Tests / Missile Tests, VVIP Security.
And I can provide more then 100 proofs in support of my claims which
are authentic and scientific and can be verified by any national /
international agency (that should transparent and non biased )
The forecast results are as follows :
BJP - 155, INC - 88, JDU - 19, JDS - 9
SAD - 4, RJD - 7, S. Sena - 19, SP - 20
AIADMK - 18, LJP - 2, PMK - 7, CPI - 14
DMK - 13, CPM - 15, INLD - 7, FB - 7
TDP - 17, BSP - 35, Trin C. - 15, TRS - 5
PDP - 2, NC - 1, NCP - 11, Others - Rest
Win / Lost List : (approx Margin)
Sonia Gandhi - Won - 75,000 .
LK Adwani - Won - 69,000
Sharad Panwar- Won - 39,000
Sushma Swaraj - Won - 2,05,000
Mamta Banerjee- Won - 1,10,100
Rajnath Singh - Won - 21,000
Dr. Satyanarayan Jatiya - Won - 60,000
Sumitra Mahajan - Won -1,30,000
Rahul Gandhi - Won - 55,000
Varun Gandhi - Won - 15,000
Lalu Prasad Yadav - 1 won - 13,000 1 lost - 3,000
Mulayam Sing - Won - 86,000
Jaswant Singh - Won - 15,000
Ramvilas Paswan - Lost - 11,000
Menka Gandhi - Won - 7,000
Buta Singh - Lost , Dushyant Singh - Lost
Please send me if any more results (specifically you needed) , you
throw challenge very late I posted the data on my portal on May 5,2009
and personally mailed various monitors and media aajtak, etv raj, toi
(who did not publish it) in the beginning of May , 2009.
Today my forecast reg. NASA STS - 125 Atlantis launch (trouble during
blast off come true anticipated by me on April 17,2009 and May 09,2009
(collision with debris damage 40 tiles needs replacement before
return).
We shall be happy to discuss the matter openly in media and we also
support your mission but you must have to look the causes which are
beyond reach of current science. A copy has been sent to The Channel
Head, Aajtak Shri Naqvi as per your instructions.
With Best Regards,
Chanakya Potdar
Kota
Tel . : 094602 37122 (contact b/w 9 am to 2 pm) and 5 to 7 pm night
9 pm onwards...
Email : chanakya.potdar@gmail.com
Web. : http://worldforecast.blogspot.com
6)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 02:52:25 -0700
From: raj_rinku46@yahoo.com
Subject: i accept the chhalange details of seats
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
CC: sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
7)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 06:02:30 -0700
From: kapil.kumar4@yahoo.com
Subject: answer 2500000 challange - kapil
To: sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
Indian national congress - 260
Bharia janti parti- 160
Communist party of India - 20
Comunist party of inndia cpiem-18
Samjwadi party - 10
Rastria janta dal- 3
Rastria janta dal scaular –5
Janta dal united - 2
Dmk - 2
Amidak -2
Tamc - 3
Baujan samaj wad I party –38
Bhartiya smajwadi party 20
Adress - kapil s% Ran Singh
House no. - 2\79 housing board jhunjhunu
(Rajasthan)
Phone no-09024220511,
8)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 13:20:27 +0000
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
Subject: poll prediction
From: spoorthi.raghu@rediffmail.com
CC: sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
Find the attachments in the mail.
9)
From: hann_u@hotmail.com
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
Subject: forecast results / information regarding Parliament Election 2009:–
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 11:41:39 +0000
To
Science and Rationalists’ Association of India
dear sir
here is the forcast result
Question no 1.
Party Seats
Congress 175
BJP 135
TMC 12
CPI(M) 33
BSP 17
RJD 7
Samajwadi party 22
DMK 17
AIADMK 18
Question no. 2
Sonia wins by 3,17,000 votes
Lal Krishn Adwani wins by 1,80,000 votes
Mamata Bandopadhyay wins by 32,000 votes
Laluprasad Yadav wins by 80,000 votes
Rambilas Paswan wins by 2,00000 votes
regards
10)
Subject: Prediction of Results of India Parliament Election 2009
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 19:20:17 +0530
From: prince.thampan1@wipro.com
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com; sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
1. How many seats will be acquired by Congress, BJP, TMC, CPI(M), BSP, RJD, Samajbadi Party, DMK, AIDMK?
Ans: Congress- 157BJP- 147TMC- 25CPI(M)- 29BSP - 15RJD- 13Samajbadi Party- 28DMK- 23AIADMK- 192. How much differences in votes will remain to win/lose for Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi, Lalkrishna Advani, Mamata Bandopadhyay, Laluprasad Yadav, Rambilas Paswan from their respective nearest opponents?Ans: Manmohan Singh,4,39,833Sonia Gandhi, 4,73,936Lalkrishna Advani,3,87,426Mamata Bandopadhyay, 2,16,212Laluprasad Yadav, 5,23428Rambilas Paswan 448750RegardsPrince ThampanPlease do not print this email unless it is absolutely necessary.
The information contained in this electronic message and any attachments to this message are intended for the exclusive use of the addressee(s) and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail. Please notify the sender immediately and destroy all copies of this message and any attachments.
WARNING: Computer viruses can be transmitted via email. The recipient should check this email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. The company accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this email.
www.wipro.com
11)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 23:14:28 +0530
Subject: ELECTION RESULTS-2009: LOK SABHA
From: pramodraja.in@gmail.com
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com; sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
LOKSABHA ELECTION RESULTS PREDICTIONS 2009:
Congress:30BJP:112CPM:110CPI:22LOKSATTA:111BSP:16TDP:9PRP:3TRS:3RJD:10DMK:8MDMK:8SP:5NCP:2SP:22AGP:5AKALIDAL:18SHIVSENA:9OTHERS:80TOTAL:543MANMOHAN SINGH:WINNERSONIA GANDHI: WINNERLK ADVANI:WINNERLALUPRASAD YADAV: LOSERPASWAN: LOSERMAMTHA BANERJEE: WINNERCONTACT No. 9391067609
12)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 23:30:20 +0530
From: sisodiyajyoti_35@yahoo.com
Subject: Regarding to your Question !!!
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com; sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com
- How many seats will be acquired by Congress, BJP, TMC, CPI(M), BSP, RJD, Samajbadi Party, DMK, AIDMK?
Ans : Congress --> 142,BJP, TMC, CPI(M), BSP, RJD, Samajbadi Party, DMK, AIDMK
13)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 23:43:16 +0530
Subject: PRIDICTION OF ELECTION 2009
From: ravigupta31@gmail.com
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
CC: sumitra_humanist@hotmail.com; Ndtvkhabar@ndtv.com
Dear Sir,
Science has yet to reaveal many secrects .This I am writing on behalf of my friend Rajendra shukla we came to know about this at 9:00 pm so time was not sufficient to predict all we are making three pridiction
Congress will get 216-- 217 seats
bjp 187 seats
l k advani will won by 58960 votes
Rajendra kumar shukla
lucknow 9369380295
CALL IN DAY TIME THEN AND THEN PRIDICTION WILL BE MADE BY GRACE OF GOD
--
Ravi Gupta
14)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 13:38:50 +0530
Subject: Fwd: challenge
From: sree.goutam2@gmail.com
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: sree goutam <sree.goutam2@gmail.com>
Date: May 15, 2009 1:33 PM
Subject: challenge
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
DearPrabir GhoshGeneral Secretary of SCIENCE AND RATIONALIST ASSOCIATION OF INDIAI,Sree Goutam,one of the notable astrologer,here by announcing that,I accept the challenge of "SCIENCE AND RATIONALIST ASSOCIATION OF INDIA".They ask about the exact M.Pseat of CONGRESS,BJP,BSP,AIADMK,DMK,SP,TMC,CPM,RJD parties and the margin of win or loss about Minmohan Sing,Sonia Gandhi,L.K.Advani,Mamata Banerjee,Lalu Prasad Yadav,Rambilas Paswan.Here are the following reply of M.P seats-CONGRESS-153,BSP-30,BJP-143,SP-24,AIADMK-9,TMC-12,DMK-12,CPM-25,RJD-4and the margins of those leaders are-Monmohan Sing-130000Sonia Gandhi-185362L.K.Advani-95684Mamata Banerjee-52637Lalu Prasad Yadav-25361Rambilas Paswan-48596All above leaders will win.-SREE GOUTAMAGE-56RASBEHARI CROSSINGMUKTANGAN THEATER HALLKOLKATA
15)
Date: Fri, 15 May 2009 08:51:26 +0000
To: prabir_rationalist@hotmail.com
Subject: challenge on prediction
From: mailme.vrigu@rediffmail.com
dear sir,
yes i am accepting the science and rationalists association of india' 25 lakhs challenge.i am an astrologer of kolkata and predicting the result of general election 2009 by astrological method.
note my prediction on the general election 2009.
congress-201
tmc-16
bjp-109
cpi(m)-25
rjd-20
smajwadi party- 33
dmk-24
admk-19
sonia gandhi will win by 200000 votes
l.k.advani will win by 59000 votes
mamata banerji will win by 210000 votes
lalu yadav will win by 20000 votes
ram vilas paswan will win by 35000 votes
thanking you.
let see the result on 16.05 2009. good luck.
vrigu
